CrisisWeb on Taiwan-China relations

I had a discussion with someone the other day about whether people who don't capitalize are just lazy. Just to prove my point to myself, I'm going to write my posts using proper capitalization, for at least the rest of the month. Here I go...

There's a fairly intelligent and unbiased analysis of the Taiwan-China situation at CrisisWeb, which is the International Crisis Group (ICG) web site.

Those who know me will recognize another one of my favorite subjects, and run away and/or cower in fear.

In the interest of full disclosure:

- My parents were both born and raised in Taipei, Taiwan. All four of my grandparents were schooled under the Japanese occupation, and both my parents under KMT martial law.
- I've been brought up on horror stories about KMT rule. I've read and/or heard about unprovoked killings of civilians during the 2/28 massacre, beating of schoolchildren for speaking native Taiwanese, massive disregard for property rights of local landowners, and general suppression of the educated upper middle classes by the KMT.

That having been said, I recognize my bias, and am able, I think, to semi-objectively evaluate other people's analyses of the current political situation. The ICG makes a major point in each of three reports:

1. Taiwan has been moving "slowly but surely" away from the "one-China" principle, primarily due to increased democratisation and the emergence of the "new Taiwanese" identity.
2. The risk of war remains distant, for two main reasons: Beijing's objectives are "reunification" and economic development, and the first is at odds with the second. China does not have the military force necessary to conduct an effective blockade, which would be the most logical military strategy.
3. Peace may be achieved across the Taiwan Strait if proper measures are taken by Taiwan, China, and the international community. Specific steps are outlined in the report.

I can not agree more with the first point. In fact, this is a point that I often try to explain to people who haven't been to Taiwan recently. There is a real cultural gap between Taiwan and China right now; the political freedom that the people of Taiwan enjoy has become a cherished part of the new Taiwanese identity. In the last presidential election, voter turnout was around 80%, and there were grandparents and parents going to political rallies and protests. I would argue that Taiwanese people appreciate their newfound freedom even more than Americans, who have enjoyed their civil liberties throughout their lifetimes. It's hard to imagine that the people of Taiwan, who have fought for their freedom, and now live in a vibrant democracy, would ever accept any kind of governance by Beijing.

The second point is another one that I have made before. I once posed the idea the Taiwanese government shouldn't try to kowtow to Beijing at all. In fact, it should cause the situation to come to a head right now, rather than to let the status quo drag on until China is a real military threat to Taiwan. If Beijing were forced to attempt a blockade or invasion of Taiwan right now it would most likely fail, and Taiwan might gain sovereign nation status in the eyes of the international community. This would be a major risk for the DPP-led government to take, and I doubt it will happen, but it's an interesting scenario to think about.

The last point about peace being achievable assumes that the Chinese government is or will at some point be willing to take steps to stabilize the situation. I argue that this is a flawed premise, since Beijing has shown again and again that it will always take the hard-line stance towards Taiwan. A few weeks ago, pressure from China on the officials at the Miss Universe pageant caused Miss Taiwan to have to change her sash to say, "Miss Chinese Taipei". China has fiercely opposed the inclusion of Taiwan in the WHO, in spite of the SARS threat and the fact that a WHO entity does not have to be recognized as a nation state. Most disturbingly, after entry into the WTO, China has repeatedly tried to downgrade Taiwan's membership status in the WTO, to the same level as Hong Kong. Unless there are radical changes within the Chinese government, peace will not be achieved in the near future...and every year the Taiwanese people take another step towards a separate national identity.